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Mortgage Rate Outlook Panel

Our panel of mortgage experts share their views on Canadian mortgage rate trends each month by answering this question: What is your outlook for Canadian mortgage rates over the next 30-45 days?

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Fixed Rates - Unchanged Variable Rates - Unchanged

The panel is undecided on fixed rates this month, with varying outlooks on how the economy is trending to deal with falling mortgage rates. But fact of the matter is that government bonds yields have somewhat stabilized as of recent. As bond yields were previously falling, mortgage rates came down as a result, likely due to the slowdown in the home sales and mortgage demand driving a competitive market between lenders.

More and more, analysts are saying the Bank of Canada will leave the overnight rate alone for the next few months, leading all panelists to believe variable rates will stay unchanged. In addition, inflation is stable and lenders are already offering decent discounts on variable mortgages, so no further discounts are expected anytime soon.

This Month's Panelists

Dan Eisner


True North Mortgage

Fixed Rates - Down Variable Rates - Unchanged

Even though bond yields have been relatively stable, Banks are eager to gain market share in the summer months and they will do so by lowering their fixed rates. Expect fixed rates to fall by 0.1 percent over the next few weeks.

Inflation is tepid and the possibility of a prime rate change in either direction is remote. We won't likely see a change in the discount off of Prime offered to clients any time soon.

Dr. Ian Lee

Program Director,

Carleton University

Fixed Rates - Unchanged Variable Rates - Unchanged

Bond yields appear to be stabilizing. More importantly, although the B-20 regulations that made mortgage borrowing more difficult, were adopted almost a year and a half ago, the rule changes continue to negatively impact the demand for mortgage borrowing, especially for first time buyers. And the banks understand that reducing rates further will not bring B-20 disqualified borrowers back to the mortgage market. Thus, further price reductions will not move the needle of mortgage demand.

The remarkably pessimistic outlook by the Bank of Canada in announcing a significant downward estimate of 2019 growth at 1.2 percent in the Monetary Policy Report on April 24, 2019, ensures no changes. Moreover, inflation is stable while the anticipated pickup in exports and investments (CAPEX) has not yet arrived.

Will Dunning

Chief Economist,

Mortgage Professionals Canada

Fixed Rates - Up Variable Rates - Unchanged

Small increases are possible. Since late last year, opinions about the economic outlook have become decidedly less optimistic. In consequence, yields for government bonds have fallen and mortgage interest rates have followed. That shift in attitudes might have been overly dramatic. It is possible that bond yields and mortgage rates fell by too much and could rise slightly. Another consideration is that a slowdown in home buying has forced lenders to compete more aggressively: the "spread" between the cost of their funds versus their lending rates is now smaller than normal. That could create a small amount of pressure for mortgage interest rates to rise, if the lenders try to re-establish a normal spread.

Intensified competition has caused lenders to increase the discounts they use to determine variable rates, so even though "base rates" are unchanged, they are now offering lower mortgage rates. The Bank of Canada is unlikely to change its key interest rate during the next few months, and therefore, variable mortgage rates are unlikely to change in the near term.