7 million Canadians have compared and saved

1-866-462-4779

Mortgage Rate Outlook Panel

Our panel of mortgage experts share their views on Canadian mortgage rate trends each month by answering this question: What is your outlook for Canadian mortgage rates over the next 30-45 days?

October 2014 Overall Summary

There may be big economic developments south of the border, but they'll fail to shake up Canadian mortgage rates this month. Fixed rates are to remain consistent as bond yields stick to their trajectory, while the variable cost of borrowing is unphased by the end of the U.S. Fed's bond buying program; policy makers in both countries insist there is no imminent change for central rates.

Fixed RatesUnchanged Variable RatesUnchanged

Government of Canada bond yields have remained consistently low since the summer months, with no significant reaction to recent events affecting economic stimulus measures in the U.S. There's no expectation that fixed mortgage rates will move in either direction for the coming month.

Even though October spells an end of the U.S. Fed's quantitative easing taper, policy makers there have been adamant that a rate increase will not follow immediately suit. This sentiment has been echoed by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who has stated that economic conditions here don't yet warrant any change to central rates. All signs point to a sustained cost of variable borrowing in the months to come.

This Month's Panelists

Dan Eisner - President, True North Mortgage

Fixed RatesUp Variable RatesUnchanged

We have seen long-term bond yields move up in the last few days as the U.S. Federal Reserve hints of higher rates and the U.S. bond buying comes to a halt. If bond yields remain at their current levels we will see long term mortgage rates move up by at least 0.25 per cent in the next few days and weeks.

The recovery in the U.S. remains tepid and the Prime rate won't move for some time. As a result, we don't foresee any changes to the variable rates in the next while.

Will Dunning - Chief Economist, Mortgage Professionals Canada

Fixed RatesUnchanged Variable RatesUnchanged

At mid-September, a wave of economic optimism caused bond yields to jump by about a quarter of a point. That wave is now subsiding and bond yields have retraced about a half of that rise. Mortgage rates did not follow the rise, which means that the gap between mortgage rates and bond yields has been reduced to an unusually small level. In consequence, there might be a small upward adjustment of mortgage rates during the coming month. It is also possible that bond yields could fall back a bit more, in which case mortgage rates won't need to adjust. That said, while economic conditions continue to improve, there is still a long way to go until there will be a need for any substantial and sustained rise in rates.

The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve clearly expect that they will not be raising their administered rates anytime soon, which means that interest costs for variable rate mortgages rates should change very little during the coming year. Analysts continue to expect that any rises for these administered rates might start about mid-2015.

Dr. Ian Lee - Program Director, Carleton University

Fixed RatesUnchanged Variable RatesUnchanged

The 5-year Government of Canada yield has been bouncing around between 1.4 and 1.6 per cent since July of this year. There is no evidence of a breakout in either direction in the near future.

A careful read of the speeches delivered in September by Deputy Governors of the Bank of Canada reveal a clear pessimism concerning the Canadian economy. For example, the newly appointed Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkens was most revealing in the title of her Sept 22, 2014 speech, "Monetary Policy and the Underwhelming Recovery". The speech two days later by Deputy Governor Lane asked, "Are we there yet?" concluding the recovery is under way – which clearly suggested we are "not there yet" (as we are merely on the road to "there").
These two empirical yet reflective speeches by two very senior deputy governors of the Bank of Canada within the last two weeks reveal pessimism tinged with some slight optimism concernin

Kelvin Mangaroo - President of RateSupermarket.ca

Fixed RatesDown Variable RatesUnchanged

Bond yields have seen a six per cent drop over the past few weeks, but five-year fixed rates have remained relatively stable. I think we could see a slight decrease in five-year fixed rates this month as we enter the seasonal fall market.

Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's wind-down of quantitative easing this month, policymakers have been adamant that there will be no change to central rates in the short term, both south of the border and in Canada. While there has been renewed talk of the risks posed by our overheated market, Federal Finance Minister Joe Oliver has stated he doesn't believe a true housing bubble exists. All signs point to sustained central rates for the time being.