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Mortgage Rate Outlook Panel

Our panel of mortgage experts share their views on Canadian mortgage rate trends each month by answering this question: What is your outlook for Canadian mortgage rates over the next 30-45 days?

November 2012 Overall Summary

As the Canadian economy continues to experience moderate growth, and global economic conditions remain under risk of recession, there is no change expected for mortgage rates. Fixed rates are to remain stable due to consistent investor interest in Government of Canada bonds. Variable mortgage rates are not anticipated to rise any time soon, along with the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate, for the coming month.

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The Canadian economy's recovery proves to be a moderate one, slowly rebounding from this summer's shrinkage and unchanged job growth. The housing market is also experiencing a seasonal and structural slowdown. However, investors continue their interest in Government of Canada bonds, pushing yields further down as Europe remains mired in recession woes, with France poised to become the new Greece. As a result, fixed mortgage rates are not anticipated to change over the coming month.

Despite the hovering possibility of raised interest rates to stem record household debt, the Bank of Canada did not increase its overnight lending rate on October 23, and is not expected to do so in its upcoming December 4 announcement. Coupled with slow economic growth on the Canadian homefront, interest rates are expected to remain in stimulus conditions, and variable mortgage rates won't change as a result.

This Month's Panelists

Mark Kocaurek - Senior Vice President, ING DIRECT

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Longer term yields have come down slightly over the past few weeks, echoing the market's view that global economic growth will remain constrained for some time to come. This, coupled with a seasonal mortgage market slowdown and what seems to be the beginning of a structural market slowdown, will likely prompt some reduction in fixed term mortgage rates.

Mark Carney continues to talk up the inevitability of rising rates in his effort to rein in rising consumer debt levels. However, this inevitability seems to be further and further in the future. Weak global demand will keep Canadian GDP growth constrained and as a result short term rates, including variable mortgage rates, will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.

Dan Eisner - President, True North Mortgage

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Government of Canada bond yields have been steady due to consistent investor support, so we will continue to see the best clients being able to get fixed mortgage rates at or just below 3%.

Banks and Canadians in general do not seem interested in variable rate options with 5 year fixed rates being so low.  As a result, we don't foresee any changes to the variable rates in the next while.

Mary Zenar - Managing Director of Zenar Financial

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The 5-year Government of Canada benchmark bond yields continued to hover around the 1.36 mark throughout October while the three month average (August to October) is 1.38.  The Canadian economy is not showing any signs of heating up quickly.  As we continue this slow recovery process, and as bond yields trend around the 1.36 mark, there is no indication of fixed mortgage rates increasing.

The Bank of Canada did not make any changes to the overnight lending rate on October 23rd, and the next scheduled meeting is December 4th.  As there are no expectations for the Bank of Canada to increase the overnight lending rate anytime in the near future due to lack of global economic headwinds, the Prime Lending Rate, along with variable mortgage rates, should remain steady. 

Dr. Ian Lee - Program Director, Carleton University

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The Canadian economy shrunk ever so slightly in August,  but the trend was down and not up - and therefore not good.  Meanwhile, job growth was unchanged and even more worrying was the decline in private sector jobs.  Clearly the economy is slowing as everyone remained on hold for November 6 to learn who will be the next U.S. President, and the resulting analysis and speculation in regards to possible resolution to for the U.S. fiscal cliff.  This is not happy news and these are not happy times.

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is  in no position to raise interest rates in the near future. The Canadian economy is slowing while Europe is sliding into a recession and German analysts are suggesting that France – now on the precipice - could become the next Greece.  This is in addition to the uncertainty over the fiscal cliff, and a very weak jobs report in the U.S. is the icing on the cake.