The Best Mortgage Rates in Victoria

Victoria Key Stats

• Victoria population (2011): 80,017
• Dwelling units (2011): 47,691
• Unemployment Rate (2012): 5.4
• Employment Level (2012)l: 185,600

Source: Stats Canada, CMHC

Victoria Mortgage Rates to Moderate in 2013

Mortgage rates are expected to remain at historical lows for the first portion of 2012 before moderating later in the year. The CMHC forecasts that the one-year posted mortgage rate will be within the 3.1 to 3.6 range, with five-year posted rates in the range of 5.0 to 5.4 per cent. Rates are expected to rise in 2013 to 3.5 to 4.1 per cent for one-year, and 5.1 to 5.6 per cent for five-year mortgage rates.

Source: CMHC

Victoria 2012 Housing Market Outlook

Victoria's economy is poised for modest growth and a period of employment expansion in 2012 and 2013. The high-tech sector will support this increase of job creation, as well as the effects of a federal ship building contract, seeing peak levels as a result. The population has also increased in Victoria as of the 2006 census, with migrants from other Canadian provinces as well as within British Columbia driving housing demand, particularly among the first time buyer segment.

Housing starts are expected to increase this year and the next, though peak levels will remain below the 10-year average. Single detached starts are expected to jump to 650 this year, from 609 in 2011, and higher still to 750 in 2013. This increase can be attributed to the B.C. government's recent announcement of Harmonized Sales Tax rules, put in place to lessen the impact of the HST on new home construction. Multi-family starts will experience flat growth, rising to 1,150 units in 2012 from 1,033 in 2011, and remaining at this level for the year to come.

MLS sales are to edge higher in 2012 in response to improved employment. Levels are expected to increase six per cent this year, to 6,100 units, from 5,773 in 2011. This is to increase higher still to 6,300 in 2013, another three per cent increase. The supply of existing homes has become to stabilize, which in turn will moderate sale prices for all dwelling types.

The average sale price has declined for three consecutive quarters, and will continue for this year and next. Prices are to drop to $495,000 in 2012 and 2013 from $498,000 in 2011.

Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook

Victoria Housing Market & Mortgage Rate Forecast

• Population: 352,400 (Stats Canada 2009)
• Positive net migration growth resulting in 4,00o to 5,000 persons per year in 2010 and 2011
• A 3.4% increase in employment expected
• GDP to increase 3.2% in 2010 and 2.8% in 2011.

Victoria Mortgage Rates Will Slowly Increase in 2010

The CMHC best case scenario, expect mortgage rates will continue to slowly increase in 2010 with a one year mortgage rate to be in the 3.6 to 4.8% range and the three and five year mortgage rates to be in the 4.2 to 6.7% range. In 2011, CMHC forecasts that the one year mortgage rate will be in the range of 5.0 to 6.0% whereas, the three and five year mortgage rate will be in the range of 5.6 to 7.2%. However, if the economy recovers at a faster rate than expected, mortgage rates may increase at a more rapid rate.

Victoria 2010 Housing Outlook

The CMHC believes that the resale market will decline in 2010 and further decrease in 2011 due to higher mortgage rates and low demand for first time home-buyers. An expected 7,300 units is forecast for 2010 and 7,200 units in 2011. Existing home prices are expected to increase 7% in 2010 and an additional 3% 2011.

As a result of positive net migration to Victoria and an increase in economic growth single starts are believed to increase in 2010 and 2011. A 50% is expected in 2010 with 1,570 units and an additional 22% increase in 2011. Multiple starts are also expected to increase in the 2010-2011 period.

CMHC Victoria housing market & Victoria mortgage rate forecast

Source = CMHC
MLS = Multiple Listings Service
*Last updated January 2010