The Best Mortgage Rates in Edmonton

Edmonton Key Stats

• Edmonton population (2011): 812,201
• Dwelling units (2012): 348,672
• Average weekly earnings (Alberta) (2012): $1,056.23
• Average household income (2012): $107,659

Source: Stats Canada, City of Edmonton 2011 Census, Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

Edmonton Mortgage Rates to Moderate in 2013

Mortgage rates are expected to remain at historical lows for the first portion of 2012 before moderating later in the year. The CMHC forecasts that the one-year posted mortgage rate will be within the 3.1 to 3.6 range, with five-year posted rates in the range of 5.0 to 5.4 per cent. Rates are expected to rise in 2013 to 3.5 to 4.1 per cent for one-year, and 5.1 to 5.6 per cent for five-year mortgage rates.
Source: CMHC

Edmonton 2012 Housing Market Outlook

Edmonton will continue to expand economically due to a number of factors, including the strong prices of crude oil and current favourable global market conditions. This growth has prompted billions of dollars in investment for the energy sector, further supporting the city's foremost industry. A relatively strong year in agriculture is another supporting factor behind a growing economy experiencing job gains, rising incomes and increased migration. Edmonton's housing market in general will be bolstered by current historically low mortgage rates, but is anticipated to moderate in 2012 and 2013.

After experiencing a six per cent decline in housing starts in 2011, new housing is expected to strengthen this year by eight per cent to 10,100 units. Single detached starts lead the growth with an anticipated 12 per cent increase to 5,600 units this year, and will sell for an average of $513,000, compared to $509,059 in 2011. This is expected to increase by 1.5 per cent to $520,500 in 2013.

Multi-family starts, including semi-detached, row and apartment units, will increase by four per cent in 2012 to 4,500 units, and these levels are expected to remain consistent into 2013 due to strong demand in resale supply levels.

Total residential MLS sales will increase by over four per cent this year to 17,700 units, up three per cent from 2011. Average housing prices are expected to rise by three per cent to $334,000. As the housing market balances, moderating the downward pressure seen on prices in 2011, the promise of higher prices and financing costs in 2013 may prompt undecided prospective home buyers to make their move now.

Edmonton Housing Market & Mortgage Rate Forecast

According to the latest census, the City of Edmonton's vital stats are as follows:

• Greater Edmonton population: 1,155,400 persons (July 2009)
• Making it the 6th largest metropolitan region in Canada
• By 2041, the population 50+ will double and represent 40% of the total population
• Edmonton's annual GDP growth is forecast to be over 4% in the next 5 years
• With the oil sector increasing, the economy of Edmonton will grow.
• Unemployment levels will decrease by 0.7% compared to 2009.
• Higher wages are expected.
• Increase in net migration due to improved labour market conditions.

Source: Last Canadian Census, Greater Edmonton Economic Overview 2008

Edmonton 2010 and 2011 Housing Outlook

The CMHC reports that after 3 years of decline, Edmonton will see an increase in housing activity in 2010 and 2011 with 8,600 units in 2010 and more in 2011. This increase is due to economy growth by net migration, an increase in job opportunities and higher wages. 2010 will see a 44% increase in single starts reaching 5,600 units whereas, 2011 should see 6,600 units in single starts. Multiple starts will also increase in 2010, a 24% increase from 2009 seeing 3,000 units. With reduced inventory costs 2011 will see 3,800 units.

According to the CMHC, absorbed prices of homes are expected to increase near the end of 2010 due to the House Price Index being continually getting better and forecast to be in the positive by the end of 2010. It is estimated that the average single detached home will decrease by 7% to $485,000 before increasing to $505,000 by 2011. The increase is price will be due to an increase in construction wages, higher land development costs and material costs.

With the economy looking good, resales are expected to recover in 2010 with a 22% increase resulting in 19,250 sales. This increase is mostly due to people taking advantage of low mortgage rates. An increase of MLS sales is also forecast for 2011 with 20,000 units expected. The average resale price for 2010 is expected to be $333,000 a 3.9% increase from 2009. In 2011, the price is expected to rise another 3.6% to $345,000.

Edmonton Mortgage Rate Outlook 2010 -2011

The CMHC best case scenario, expect mortgage rates will continue to slowly increase in 2010 with a one year mortgage rate to be in the 3.6 to 4.8% range and the three and five year mortgage rates to be in the 4.2 to 6.7% range. In 2011, CMHC forecasts that the one year mortgage rate will be in the range of 5.0 to 6.0% whereas, the three and five year mortgage rate will be in the range of 5.6 to 7.2%. However, if the economy recovers at a faster rate than expected, mortgage rates may increase at a more rapid rate.

CMHC Edmonton housing market & Edmonton mortgage rate forecast