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The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has just released their Halifax Housing Association Market Outlook for Q2 2008. Although they specifically didn't outline their view on mortgage rates for Halifax, Nova Scotia, it is safe to assume that it is consistent with the national Canadian mortgage rate outlook for the rest of 2008 and 2009. Mortgage rates are expected to trend marginally lower throughout 2008, but will be within 25-50 basis points of their current levels.
For 2009, posted mortgage rates will begin to drift up slightly as the year progresses. For 2008 and 2009, the one-year posted mortgage rate is forecast to be in the 6.50-7.50% range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.75-7.50% range.
The CMHC did outline that they expect existing home sales in Halifax to be down considerably this year and next after a record year in 2007. MLS sales are expected to dip below 6,500 in 2008 and with a slightly smaller decline forecast for 2009 to 6,200 sales.
The average Halifax house price will continue to grow faster than inflation, increasing by approximately 4% annually in both 2008 and 2009. The average price in 2007 was just under $216,000 and will grow to approximately $225,000 in 2008 and $233,000 in 2009. An increase in the supply of homes for sale will ease some of price pressure as the forecasted growth is well below the 7% - 8% annual growth seen since 2000.
Census Metropolitan Area |
Total Housing |
MLS sales |
MLS average |
Mortgage rates |
Mortgage rates |
Halifax |
2007 |
2,489 |
6,942 |
$215,645 |
7.35% |
7.54% |
2008 (F) |
2,500 |
6,500 |
$223,000 |
6.95% |
7.01% |
|
2009 (F) |
2,550 |
6,400 |
$230,000 |
6.83% |
6.97% |
|
Source = CMHC
MLS = Multiple Listings Service
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