According to the latest census, the City of Edmonton's vital stats are as follows:

• Greater Edmonton population: 1,155,400 persons (July 2009)
• Making it the 6th largest metropolitan region in Canada
• By 2041, the population 50+ will double and represent 40% of the total population
• Edmonton's annual GDP growth is forecast to be over 4% in the next 5 years
• With the oil sector increasing, the economy of Edmonton will grow.
• Unemployment levels will decrease by 0.7% compared to 2009.
• Higher wages are expected.
• Increase in net migration due to improved labour market conditions.

Source: Last Canadian Census, Greater Edmonton Economic Overview 2008

Edmonton 2010 and 2011 Housing Outlook

The CMHC reports that after 3 years of decline, Edmonton will see an increase in housing activity in 2010 and 2011 with 8,600 units in 2010 and more in 2011. This increase is due to economy growth by net migration, an increase in job opportunities and higher wages. 2010 will see a 44% increase in single starts reaching 5,600 units whereas, 2011 should see 6,600 units in single starts. Multiple starts will also increase in 2010, a 24% increase from 2009 seeing 3,000 units. With reduced inventory costs 2011 will see 3,800 units.

According to the CMHC, absorbed prices of homes are expected to increase near the end of 2010 due to the House Price Index being continually getting better and forecast to be in the positive by the end of 2010. It is estimated that the average single detached home will decrease by 7% to $485,000 before increasing to $505,000 by 2011. The increase is price will be due to an increase in construction wages, higher land development costs and material costs.

With the economy looking good, resales are expected to recover in 2010 with a 22% increase resulting in 19,250 sales. This increase is mostly due to people taking advantage of low mortgage rates. An increase of MLS sales is also forecast for 2011 with 20,000 units expected. The average resale price for 2010 is expected to be $333,000 a 3.9% increase from 2009. In 2011, the price is expected to rise another 3.6% to $345,000.

Edmonton Mortgage Rate Outlook 2010 -2011

The CMHC best case scenario, expect mortgage rates will continue to slowly increase in 2010 with a one year mortgage rate to be in the 3.6 to 4.8% range and the three and five year mortgage rates to be in the 4.2 to 6.7% range. In 2011, CMHC forecasts that the one year mortgage rate will be in the range of 5.0 to 6.0% whereas, the three and five year mortgage rate will be in the range of 5.6 to 7.2%. However, if the economy recovers at a faster rate than expected, mortgage rates may increase at a more rapid rate.

CMHC Edmonton housing market & Edmonton mortgage rate forecast